Darren Till vs Kelvin Gastelum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-1Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'9"
74"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Astra Fight TeamTeamFight Ready
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1699
If they lose-15→ 1667
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1738 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Darren TillKelvin Gastelum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kelvin Gastelum62%
Darren Till 38%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 62% favorite over Darren Till in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1693), separated by just 11 points.
Darren Till enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Darren Till finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.
Darren Till and Kelvin Gastelum share 1 common opponent: Robert Whittaker.
Darren Till carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.