Combat Edge Intelligence

Darrius Flowers vs Mehdi Baghdad

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-8-1Record12-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
71"Reach40,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamBlack House

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Darrius FlowersNow 1586
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
Mehdi BaghdadNow 1585
If they win+16→ 1601
If they lose-16→ 1569

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.07
Sig. strikes / min
3.13
50%
Strike accuracy
31%
5.49
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.56
44%
Strike defense
46%
0.98
Takedown avg.
0
29%
Takedown accuracy
0%
64%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Darrius FlowersMehdi Baghdad
155016002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (69%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
1 (8%)
Submission
3 (25%)
3 (23%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Darrius Flowers66%
Mehdi Baghdad 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Darrius Flowers a 66% favorite over Mehdi Baghdad in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1585), separated by just 1 points.

Darrius Flowers finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Mehdi Baghdad 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.