Combat Edge Intelligence

Dashon Johnson vs Jake Matthews

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Jake Matthews
au

Jake Matthews

“The Celtic Kid”

23-8-0WelterweightUFC

1753Great

Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record23-8-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
TBDReach73"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Xplode MMATeamNexus

What's at stake

Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Dashon Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dashon JohnsonNow 1621
If they win+22→ 1643
If they lose-10→ 1611
Jake MatthewsNow 1753
If they win+8→ 1761
If they lose-16→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1502 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1698 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.01
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
69%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.62
35%
Strike defense
60%
0.85
Takedown avg.
1.44
33%
Takedown accuracy
42%
64%
Takedown defense
64%
0.85
Submission avg.
0.75

Trajectory

Dashon JohnsonJake Matthews
1600170020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (56%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
3 (33%)
Submission
9 (39%)
1 (11%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Jake Matthews87%
Dashon Johnson 13%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 87% favorite over Dashon Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1753 to 1621, a 132-point edge.

Dashon Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dashon Johnson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Jake Matthews 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.