Combat Edge Intelligence

David Baron vs Ismael Bonfim

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-4-1Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
169 lbsWeight155 lbs
Haute TensionTeamCerrado MMA· 1632 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

David BaronNow 1662
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
Ismael BonfimNow 1662
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.53
Sig. strikes / min
5.51
44%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.71
56%
Strike defense
65%
0
Takedown avg.
1.06
0%
Takedown accuracy
33%
14%
Takedown defense
77%
1.13
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

David BaronIsmael Bonfim
16501700201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
9 (45%)
11 (65%)
Submission
4 (20%)
2 (12%)
Decision
7 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Ismael Bonfim63%
David Baron 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ismael Bonfim a 63% favorite over David Baron in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans David Baron's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1662 vs 1662), separated by just 0 points.

Ismael Bonfim enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

David Baron finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Ismael Bonfim 65%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.