David Branch vs Jack Hermansson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record24-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
42,0"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamFrontline Academy
What's at stake
David Branch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jack Hermansson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1770
If they lose-13→ 1746
If they win+13→ 1734
If they lose-11→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
David BranchJack Hermansson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jack Hermansson60%
David Branch 40%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Jack Hermansson a 60% favorite over David Branch in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans David Branch's way (45%).
David Branch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1721, a 38-point edge.
David Branch enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jack Hermansson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
David Branch finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Jack Hermansson 71%.
David Branch and Jack Hermansson share 1 common opponent: Jared Cannonier.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.