Combat Edge Intelligence

David Michaud vs Ismael Bonfim

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
MMA LabTeamCerrado MMA· 1632 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

David MichaudNow 1662
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
Ismael BonfimNow 1662
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.25
Sig. strikes / min
5.51
43%
Strike accuracy
54%
4.45
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.71
54%
Strike defense
65%
2.53
Takedown avg.
1.06
58%
Takedown accuracy
33%
77%
Takedown defense
77%
0.72
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

David MichaudIsmael Bonfim
160016501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (50%)
KO/TKO
9 (45%)
5 (28%)
Submission
4 (20%)
4 (22%)
Decision
7 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Ismael Bonfim60%
David Michaud 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ismael Bonfim a 60% favorite over David Michaud in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans David Michaud's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1662 vs 1662), separated by just 0 points.

Ismael Bonfim enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

David Michaud finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Ismael Bonfim 65%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.