Combat Edge Intelligence

David Michaud vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record21-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach70,5"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
MMA LabTeamH2O MMA

What's at stake

Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — David Michaud carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

David MichaudNow 1662
If they win+22→ 1684
If they lose-10→ 1652
Olivier Aubin-MercierNow 1794
If they win+8→ 1802
If they lose-16→ 1778

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.25
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
43%
Strike accuracy
51%
4.45
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
54%
Strike defense
56%
2.53
Takedown avg.
2.36
58%
Takedown accuracy
34%
77%
Takedown defense
71%
0.72
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

David MichaudOlivier Aubin-Mercier
16001650170017501800201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

9 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
5 (28%)
Submission
8 (38%)
4 (22%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Olivier Aubin-Mercier78%
David Michaud 22%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 78% favorite over David Michaud in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1794 to 1662, a 132-point edge.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.

David Michaud finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.