Combat Edge Intelligence

Delson Heleno vs Lucas Fernando

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-11-0Record14-3-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
TBDReach81.5"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
CM System· 1632 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamRefit Pro Fighters

What's at stake

Lucas Fernando is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Delson Heleno carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Delson HelenoNow 1665
If they win+13→ 1678
If they lose-11→ 1654
Lucas FernandoNow 1687
If they win+15→ 1702
If they lose-17→ 1670

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.69
Sig. strikes / min
1.87
75%
Strike accuracy
52%
4.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.73
19%
Strike defense
39%
0
Takedown avg.
3
0%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Delson HelenoLucas Fernando
1650170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (13%)
KO/TKO
8 (57%)
14 (47%)
Submission
2 (14%)
12 (40%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Fernando88%
Delson Heleno 12%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Fernando a 88% favorite over Delson Heleno in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Lucas Fernando holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1665, a 22-point edge.

Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Delson Heleno finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Fernando 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.