Demian Maia vs Lyman Good
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-11-0Record21-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann
What's at stake
Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Lyman Good carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1785
If they lose-13→ 1761
If they win+13→ 1744
If they lose-11→ 1720
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1767 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Demian MaiaLyman Good
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lyman Good58%
Demian Maia 42%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Lyman Good a 58% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demian Maia's way (44%).
Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1731, a 43-point edge.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Lyman Good 67%.
Demian Maia and Lyman Good share 1 common opponent: Belal Muhammad.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.