Demian Maia vs Matt Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-11-0Record24-19-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamImmortal Fight Team
What's at stake
Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1781
If they lose-17→ 1757
If they win+17→ 1641
If they lose-7→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Demian MaiaMatt Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Demian Maia67%
Matt Brown 33%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 67% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1624, a 150-point edge.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.
Demian Maia and Matt Brown share 1 common opponent: Carlos Condit.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.