Deniz Ilbay vs Francis Marshall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record10-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
70"Reach72"
146 lbsWeight155 lbs
UFD GymTeamPellegrino Mixed Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1561 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Deniz IlbayFrancis Marshall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francis Marshall61%
Deniz Ilbay 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Francis Marshall a 61% favorite over Deniz Ilbay in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Deniz Ilbay's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1641), separated by just 0 points.
Deniz Ilbay enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Deniz Ilbay finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Francis Marshall 60%.
Francis Marshall carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.