Combat Edge Intelligence

Deniz Ilbay vs Hugo Vach

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Deniz Ilbay
de

Deniz Ilbay

“El Pistolero”

9-3-0FeatherweightOKMMA

1597Solid
Hugo Vach
de

Hugo Vach

“The German Tarzan”

8-1-0BantamweightOKMMA

1650Good

Tale of the tape

9-3-0Record8-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'9"
70"Reach-
146 lbsWeight135 lbs
UFD GymTeamFightschool Hannover

What's at stake

Hugo Vach is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Deniz Ilbay carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Deniz IlbayNow 1597
If they win+18→ 1615
If they lose-14→ 1583
Hugo VachNow 1650
If they win+20→ 1670
If they lose-28→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Deniz IlbayHugo Vach
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
5 (63%)
1 (11%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (22%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Hugo Vach67%
Deniz Ilbay 33%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Hugo Vach a 67% favorite over Deniz Ilbay in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Hugo Vach holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1650 to 1597, a 53-point edge.

Hugo Vach enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Deniz Ilbay finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Hugo Vach 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.