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Combat Edge Intelligence

Deniz Ilbay vs Hugo Vach

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Deniz Ilbay
de

Deniz Ilbay

“El Pistolero”

10-3-0FeatherweightOKMMA

1641Solid
Hugo Vach
de

Hugo Vach

“The German Tarzan”

8-2-0BantamweightOKMMA

1626Solid

Tale of the tape

10-3-0Record8-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'9"
70"Reach-
146 lbsWeight135 lbs
UFD GymTeamFightschool Hannover· 1631 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Deniz Ilbay is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Hugo Vach carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Deniz IlbayNow 1641
If they win+15→ 1656
If they lose-17→ 1624
Hugo VachNow 1626
If they win+17→ 1643
If they lose-15→ 1611

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1561 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
Not available
Strike accuracy
Not available
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
Not available
Strike defense
Not available
Not available
Takedown avg.
Not available
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
Not available
Takedown defense
Not available
Not available
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Deniz IlbayHugo Vach
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (70%)
KO/TKO
5 (63%)
1 (10%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (20%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Deniz Ilbay56%
Hugo Vach 44%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Deniz Ilbay a 56% favorite over Hugo Vach in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Deniz Ilbay holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1641 to 1626, a 15-point edge.

Deniz Ilbay enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Deniz Ilbay finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Hugo Vach 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.