OKTAGON 94 : ECKERLIN VS KOZMA

Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay

DateSep 26, 2026
StatusScheduled
VenueDeutsche Bank Park
BroadcastOKTAGON PASS
Start times & how to watch
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 26, 2026 — watch on OKTAGON PASS.

US East (ET)
Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT)
Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom
Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe
Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney)
Sun 2:00 AM
Hugo VachThe German Tarzan |8-1-0Hugo Vach vs Deniz IlbayDeniz IlbayEl Pistolero |9-3-0
deHugo VachThe German Tarzan8-1-0Hugo Vach
Elo1650Good
3Y trend1570 → 1650
2024-04-27: 15702025-05-03: 15892025-09-13: 16102025-12-28: 16322026-05-16: 1650
de

Fight Overview

Round3
Time5:00
8-1-0Record9-3-0
26Age31
5'9"Height5'6"
-Reach70"
135 lbsWeight146 lbs
FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight
deDeniz IlbayEl Pistolero9-3-0deDeniz Ilbay
Elo1597Solid
3Y trend1623 → 1597
2023-09-16: 16232023-11-18: 15852024-06-08: 16052024-10-12: 16222025-02-01: 16482025-04-05: 16072026-01-17: 15862026-03-07: 1597
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Hugo Vach owns a 53-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Hugo Vach and Deniz Ilbay across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Hugo VachDeniz Ilbay
155016001650202420252026

Recent form

Hugo VachW W W W W · +98 Elo last 5
WWWWW
Deniz IlbayW L L W W · -7 Elo last 5
WLLWW

Elo edge

Hugo Vach1650+18 last move
Deniz Ilbay1597+11 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
69%Hugo Vach31%Deniz Ilbay
Model favoriteHugo Vach
Elo baseline58% for Hugo Vach
Matchup adjustment+11 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Hugo VachStake

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Hugo Vach leads the full model at 69%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 12 points.

Current Elo ratings1650 · 1597Hugo Vach leads by 53 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1512 · 1511Hugo Vach faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth9 · 12 fightsDeniz Ilbay has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Hugo VachvsDeniz Ilbay

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Hugo VachKO/TKO leads 63% of wins
Deniz IlbayKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

Teo Saldana SmithHugo Vach: win · KO (Punch) · May 16, 2026Deniz Ilbay: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Oct 18, 2025

Tale of the tape

Hugo VachDeniz Ilbay

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available
UFC bantamweight average : 3.70
Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available
UFC bantamweight average : 45%
Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available
UFC bantamweight average : 3.76
Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available
UFC bantamweight average : 54%
Not availableTakedown averageNot available
UFC bantamweight average : 1.52
Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available
UFC bantamweight average : 28%
Not availableTakedown defenseNot available
UFC bantamweight average : 61%
Not availableSubmission averageNot available
UFC bantamweight average : 0.52
5Wins by knockout6
0Wins by submission1
3Wins by decision2
0Losses by knockout0
0Losses by submission3
1Losses by decision0

Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay is a scheduled Featherweight fight on OKTAGON 94 : ECKERLIN VS KOZMA. Hugo Vach enters with a 8-1-0 record and Deniz Ilbay enters with a 9-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay quick answers

When is Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay?

Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay is listed for OKTAGON 94 : ECKERLIN VS KOZMA on Sep 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST.

What event is Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay on?

Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay is listed on OKTAGON 94 : ECKERLIN VS KOZMA.

What are the records for Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay?

Hugo Vach enters with a 8-1-0 record and Deniz Ilbay enters with a 9-3-0 record.

What division is Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay?

Hugo Vach vs Deniz Ilbay is listed as a Featherweight fight.

Full fight card

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