Derek Brunson vs Elias Theodorou
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-9-0Record19-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
77,0"Reach75,5"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamKros Gym
What's at stake
Elias Theodorou is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Derek Brunson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1768
If they lose-11→ 1744
If they win+15→ 1786
If they lose-17→ 1754
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derek BrunsonElias Theodorou
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Elias Theodorou71%
Derek Brunson 29%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Elias Theodorou a 71% favorite over Derek Brunson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Elias Theodorou holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1771 to 1755, a 16-point edge.
Elias Theodorou enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Elias Theodorou 47%.
Derek Brunson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.