Derek Brunson vs Ian Heinisch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-9-0Record14-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
77,0"ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamGenesis MMA
What's at stake
Derek Brunson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ian Heinisch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1765
If they lose-14→ 1741
If they win+19→ 1704
If they lose-13→ 1672
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derek BrunsonIan Heinisch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derek Brunson54%
Ian Heinisch 46%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 54% favorite over Ian Heinisch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Derek Brunson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1685, a 70-point edge.
Ian Heinisch enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ian Heinisch 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.