Derek Brunson vs Israel Adesanya
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-9-0Record24-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'4"
77,0"Reach80"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamCity Kickboxing
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1767
If they lose-12→ 1743
If they win+12→ 1773
If they lose-12→ 1749
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derek BrunsonIsrael Adesanya
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Israel Adesanya68%
Derek Brunson 32%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Israel Adesanya a 68% favorite over Derek Brunson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1755 vs 1761), separated by just 6 points.
Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Israel Adesanya 67%.
Derek Brunson and Israel Adesanya share 2 common opponents: Dricus Du Plessis and Jared Cannonier.
Israel Adesanya carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.