Devonte Smith vs Francisco Prado
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record12-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
76"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamThe Goat Shed Academy· 1671 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Devonte SmithFrancisco Prado
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Prado79%
Devonte Smith 21%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Prado a 79% favorite over Devonte Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Devonte Smith's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1672 vs 1672), separated by just 0 points.
Devonte Smith enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Devonte Smith finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Prado 100%.
Devonte Smith and Francisco Prado share 1 common opponent: Jamie Mullarkey.
Devonte Smith carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.