Combat Edge Intelligence

Devonte Smith vs Jamie Mullarkey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
76"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamBangtao Muay Thai & MMA

What's at stake

Devonte Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jamie Mullarkey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Devonte SmithNow 1672
If they win+14→ 1686
If they lose-18→ 1654
Jamie MullarkeyNow 1631
If they win+13→ 1644
If they lose-11→ 1620

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.55
Sig. strikes / min
4.20
53%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.34
50%
Strike defense
55%
0.35
Takedown avg.
2.40
25%
Takedown accuracy
30%
86%
Takedown defense
79%
0.35
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Devonte SmithJamie Mullarkey
165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (91%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
1 (9%)
Submission
3 (17%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Devonte Smith60%
Jamie Mullarkey 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Devonte Smith a 60% favorite over Jamie Mullarkey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Devonte Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1631, a 41-point edge.

Devonte Smith enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Devonte Smith finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Mullarkey 72%.

Devonte Smith carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.