Diego Sanchez vs Jake Ellenberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-14-0Record31-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach39,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Diego Sanchez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jake Ellenberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1692
If they lose-13→ 1668
If they win+13→ 1678
If they lose-11→ 1654
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1691 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego SanchezJake Ellenberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Diego Sanchez and Jake Ellenberger within a point of even.
Diego Sanchez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1681 to 1665, a 16-point edge.
Diego Sanchez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Diego Sanchez finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Jake Ellenberger 81%.
Diego Sanchez and Jake Ellenberger share 1 common opponent: Matt Brown.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.