Combat Edge Intelligence

Dione Barbosa vs Ernesta Kareckaite

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-4-0Record6-2-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'9"
66"Reach 71"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Kings MMA· 1672 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamFighters Land

What's at stake

Dione Barbosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ernesta Kareckaite carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dione BarbosaNow 1634
If they win+14→ 1648
If they lose-18→ 1616
Ernesta KareckaiteNow 1582
If they win+28→ 1610
If they lose-20→ 1562

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.21
Sig. strikes / min
7.28
45%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.47
64%
Strike defense
50%
2.40
Takedown avg.
0.75
8%
Takedown accuracy
20%
64%
Takedown defense
81%
1.74
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Dione BarbosaErnesta Kareckaite
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
5 (50%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (50%)
Decision
4 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Dione Barbosa60%
Ernesta Kareckaite 40%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Dione Barbosa a 60% favorite over Ernesta Kareckaite in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Dione Barbosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1634 to 1582, a 52-point edge.

Dione Barbosa enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Dione Barbosa finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Ernesta Kareckaite 33%.

Ernesta Kareckaite carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.