Dione Barbosa vs Ernesta Kareckaite
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record6-2-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'9"
66"Reach 71"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Kings MMA· 1670 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamFighters Land
What's at stake
Dione Barbosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ernesta Kareckaite carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1649
If they lose-18→ 1617
If they win+18→ 1600
If they lose-14→ 1568
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dione BarbosaErnesta Kareckaite
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Dione Barbosa and Ernesta Kareckaite within a point of even.
Dione Barbosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1582, a 53-point edge.
Dione Barbosa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dione Barbosa finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Ernesta Kareckaite 33%.
Dione Barbosa and Ernesta Kareckaite share 1 common opponent: Melissa Gatto.
Ernesta Kareckaite carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.