Dmitriy Aryshev vs Thiago Santos
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Dmitriy Aryshev58%
Thiago Santos 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Dmitriy Aryshev a 58% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1672), separated by just 3 points.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Dmitriy Aryshev finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
15-10-1Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'2"
-Reach 76"
187 lbsWeight241 lbs
Sech Pro· 1660 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1687
If they lose-12→ 1663
If they win+12→ 1684
If they lose-12→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dmitriy AryshevThiago Santos