Dominick Reyes vs Jared Cannonier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record18-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
77"Reach 77"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Teixeira MMA & FitnessTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Dominick Reyes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jared Cannonier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1763
If they lose-18→ 1731
If they win+18→ 1725
If they lose-14→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1758 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dominick ReyesJared Cannonier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dominick Reyes75%
Jared Cannonier 25%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Dominick Reyes a 75% favorite over Jared Cannonier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Dominick Reyes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1707, a 42-point edge.
Dominick Reyes finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jared Cannonier 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.