Dominick Reyes vs Jared Cannonier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record18-10-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
77"Reach 77"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Teixeira MMA & Fitness· 1664 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Dominick Reyes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jared Cannonier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1762
If they lose-19→ 1730
If they win+19→ 1712
If they lose-13→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1762 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dominick ReyesJared Cannonier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dominick Reyes70%
Jared Cannonier 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Dominick Reyes a 70% favorite over Jared Cannonier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Dominick Reyes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1693, a 56-point edge.
Jared Cannonier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dominick Reyes finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jared Cannonier 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.