Donald Cerrone vs Eddie Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record30-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
73"Reach69,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BMF RanchTeamRicardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Eddie Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Donald Cerrone carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1725
If they lose-9→ 1701
If they win+9→ 1805
If they lose-15→ 1781
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneEddie Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Eddie Alvarez75%
Donald Cerrone 25%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Eddie Alvarez a 75% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Eddie Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1710, a 86-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Eddie Alvarez 80%.
Donald Cerrone and Eddie Alvarez share 3 common opponents: Anthony Pettis, Conor McGregor and Justin Gaethje.
Donald Cerrone carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.