Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record28-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Donald Cerrone carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1727
If they lose-7→ 1703
If they win+7→ 1876
If they lose-17→ 1852
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1808 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje92%
Donald Cerrone 8%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 92% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1710, a 159-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Justin Gaethje 79%.
Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje share 1 common opponent: Tony Ferguson.
Donald Cerrone carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.