Donald Cerrone vs Matt Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record24-19-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
73"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BMF RanchTeamImmortal Fight Team
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1719
If they lose-15→ 1695
If they win+15→ 1639
If they lose-9→ 1615
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneMatt Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Donald Cerrone75%
Matt Brown 25%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Donald Cerrone a 75% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1624, a 86-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.
Matt Brown carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.