Combat Edge Intelligence

Doug Marshall vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record17-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height5'11"
TBDReach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Elite TeamTeamFrankers Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Doug MarshallNow 1657
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645
Dustin StoltzfusNow 1660
If they win+12→ 1672
If they lose-12→ 1648

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1603 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1683 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.97
Sig. strikes / min
3.30
51%
Strike accuracy
45%
6.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
62%
Strike defense
48%
0
Takedown avg.
2.08
TBD
Takedown accuracy
10%
0%
Takedown defense
47%
6.29
Submission avg.
1.11

Trajectory

Doug MarshallDustin Stoltzfus
16001650170020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (72%)
KO/TKO
3 (19%)
3 (17%)
Submission
7 (44%)
2 (11%)
Decision
6 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Dustin Stoltzfus79%
Doug Marshall 21%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Stoltzfus a 79% favorite over Doug Marshall in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1660), separated by just 3 points.

Doug Marshall enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Doug Marshall finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Stoltzfus 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.