Combat Edge Intelligence

Douglas Rodrigues vs Garreth McLellan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record13-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
74"Reach72,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1594 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamFightFit Militia

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Douglas RodriguesNow 1587
If they win+24→ 1611
If they lose-24→ 1563
Garreth McLellanNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1512 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.56
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
TBD
Strike defense
45%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.15
TBD
Takedown accuracy
22%
TBD
Takedown defense
35%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.86

Trajectory

Douglas RodriguesGarreth McLellan
16002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (71%)
KO/TKO
3 (23%)
1 (14%)
Submission
9 (69%)
1 (14%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Douglas Rodrigues88%
Garreth McLellan 12%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Douglas Rodrigues a 88% favorite over Garreth McLellan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1587 vs 1583), separated by just 4 points.

Garreth McLellan enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Douglas Rodrigues finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Garreth McLellan 92%.

Douglas Rodrigues carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.