Douglas Rodrigues vs Renato Valente
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Renato Valente54%
Douglas Rodrigues 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Renato Valente a 54% favorite over Douglas Rodrigues in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Douglas Rodrigues's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1592 vs 1592), separated by just 0 points.
Douglas Rodrigues finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Renato Valente 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record12-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1580 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamRio Fighters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1616
If they lose-24→ 1568
If they win+16→ 1608
If they lose-16→ 1576
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1526 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Douglas RodriguesRenato Valente