Drew Dober vs Islam Makhachev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
29-15-0Record29-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70″Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Drew Dober carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1720
If they lose-5→ 1696
If they win+5→ 1936
If they lose-19→ 1912
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1796 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Drew DoberIslam Makhachev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev92%
Drew Dober 8%Elo baseline: 79%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 92% favorite over Drew Dober in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1931 to 1701, a 230-point edge.
Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 62%.
Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev share 2 common opponents: Renato Moicano and King Green.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.