Combat Edge Intelligence

Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

29-15-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70″Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Drew Dober is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Drew DoberNow 1701
If they win+9→ 1710
If they lose-15→ 1686
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+15→ 1628
If they lose-9→ 1604

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
41%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
53%
Strike defense
59%
0.63
Takedown avg.
0.58
17%
Takedown accuracy
39%
58%
Takedown defense
81%
0.07
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Drew DoberMichael Johnson
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (59%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
5 (17%)
Submission
2 (8%)
7 (24%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Drew Dober73%
Michael Johnson 27%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Drew Dober a 73% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Drew Dober holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1613, a 88-point edge.

Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Michael Johnson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.