Combat Edge Intelligence

Drew Dober vs Renato Moicano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-15-0Record21-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70″Reach72″
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamFirst Fight Center

What's at stake

Renato Moicano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Drew Dober carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Drew DoberNow 1701
If they win+13→ 1714
If they lose-11→ 1690
Renato MoicanoNow 1743
If they win+11→ 1754
If they lose-13→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
4.17
41%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.57
53%
Strike defense
60%
0.63
Takedown avg.
1.67
17%
Takedown accuracy
42%
58%
Takedown defense
63%
0.07
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Drew DoberRenato Moicano
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (59%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
5 (17%)
Submission
11 (52%)
7 (24%)
Decision
8 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Renato Moicano60%
Drew Dober 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Renato Moicano a 60% favorite over Drew Dober in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Renato Moicano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1701, a 42-point edge.

Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Renato Moicano 62%.

Renato Moicano carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.