Combat Edge Intelligence

Drew Dober vs Terrance McKinney

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-15-0Record18-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70″Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamWarrior Camp

What's at stake

Drew Dober is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Terrance McKinney carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Drew DoberNow 1701
If they win+11→ 1712
If they lose-13→ 1688
Terrance McKinneyNow 1674
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
6.53
41%
Strike accuracy
56%
4.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
53%
Strike defense
43%
0.63
Takedown avg.
3.31
17%
Takedown accuracy
0%
58%
Takedown defense
73%
0.07
Submission avg.
2.07

Trajectory

Drew DoberTerrance McKinney
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (59%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
5 (17%)
Submission
9 (50%)
7 (24%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Drew Dober and Terrance McKinney within a point of even.

Drew Dober holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1674, a 27-point edge.

Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.

Terrance McKinney carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.