Dustin Poirier vs Ilia Topuria
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record17-1-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72″Reach69"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCliment Club· 1711 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Ilia Topuria is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Dustin Poirier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1825
If they lose-11→ 1801
If they win+15→ 1844
If they lose-17→ 1812
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1758 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierIlia Topuria
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ilia Topuria71%
Dustin Poirier 29%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Ilia Topuria a 71% favorite over Dustin Poirier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Ilia Topuria holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1829 to 1812, a 17-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Ilia Topuria 88%.
Dustin Poirier and Ilia Topuria share 3 common opponents: Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira.
Dustin Poirier carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.