Dustin Poirier vs Jim Miller
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record39-19-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72″Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamSussex County MMA
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jim Miller carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1821
If they lose-15→ 1797
If they win+15→ 1735
If they lose-9→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierJim Miller
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier70%
Jim Miller 30%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 70% favorite over Jim Miller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1720, a 92-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Jim Miller 74%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.