Dustin Poirier vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record29-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72″Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFightspirit Team
What's at stake
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Dustin Poirier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1827
If they lose-9→ 1803
If they win+9→ 1899
If they lose-15→ 1875
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierKhabib Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khabib Nurmagomedov75%
Dustin Poirier 25%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 75% favorite over Dustin Poirier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1812, a 78-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.
Dustin Poirier and Khabib Nurmagomedov share 2 common opponents: Justin Gaethje and Conor McGregor.
Dustin Poirier carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.