Dustin Poirier vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record28-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72″Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Dustin Poirier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1825
If they lose-11→ 1801
If they win+11→ 1841
If they lose-13→ 1817
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Holloway70%
Dustin Poirier 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 70% favorite over Dustin Poirier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1812, a 18-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway share 3 common opponents: Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira and Conor McGregor.
Dustin Poirier carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.