Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Marc-André Barriault

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-8-0Record17-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
75"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Frankers Fight TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dustin StoltzfusNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
Marc-André BarriaultNow 1638
If they win+12→ 1650
If they lose-12→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.30
Sig. strikes / min
5.70
45%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.63
48%
Strike defense
51%
2.08
Takedown avg.
0.37
10%
Takedown accuracy
29%
47%
Takedown defense
68%
1.11
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Dustin StoltzfusMarc-André Barriault
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (20%)
KO/TKO
11 (65%)
6 (40%)
Submission
1 (6%)
6 (40%)
Decision
5 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Marc-André Barriault57%
Dustin Stoltzfus 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marc-André Barriault a 57% favorite over Dustin Stoltzfus in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1638), separated by just 1 points.

Dustin Stoltzfus enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Marc-André Barriault enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dustin Stoltzfus finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Marc-André Barriault 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.