Dustin Stoltzfus vs Matej Penaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record9-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
75"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Frankers Fight TeamTeamReinders MMA· 1602 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1672
If they lose-12→ 1648
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin StoltzfusMatej Penaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Stoltzfus52%
Matej Penaz 48%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Stoltzfus a 52% favorite over Matej Penaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1660 vs 1656), separated by just 4 points.
Matej Penaz enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dustin Stoltzfus finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Matej Penaz 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.