Dzhamal Mavliudov vs Sho Patrick Usami
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Sho Patrick Usami65%
Dzhamal Mavliudov 35%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Sho Patrick Usami a 65% favorite over Dzhamal Mavliudov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dzhamal Mavliudov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1577 vs 1577), separated by just 0 points.
Dzhamal Mavliudov enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dzhamal Mavliudov finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Sho Patrick Usami 78%.
Dzhamal Mavliudov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record9-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'11"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Top Team Portland· 1663 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamBattle Box· 1595 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1601
If they lose-24→ 1553
If they win+16→ 1593
If they lose-16→ 1561
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dzhamal MavliudovSho Patrick Usami