Eddie Alvarez vs Grant Dawson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-8-0Record24-3-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
69,0"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Ricardo Almeida Jiu-JitsuTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1808
If they lose-12→ 1784
If they win+12→ 1814
If they lose-12→ 1790
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Eddie AlvarezGrant Dawson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson73%
Eddie Alvarez 27%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 73% favorite over Eddie Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1796 vs 1802), separated by just 6 points.
Eddie Alvarez finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Grant Dawson 79%.
Grant Dawson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.