Eddie Alvarez vs Justin Gaethje
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-8-0Record28-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
69,0"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Ricardo Almeida Jiu-JitsuTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Eddie Alvarez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1810
If they lose-9→ 1786
If they win+9→ 1878
If they lose-15→ 1854
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1808 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Eddie AlvarezJustin Gaethje
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje69%
Eddie Alvarez 31%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 69% favorite over Eddie Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1795, a 74-point edge.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Eddie Alvarez finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Justin Gaethje 79%.
Eddie Alvarez and Justin Gaethje share 1 common opponent: Dustin Poirier.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.