Edson Barboza vs Justin Gaethje
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
24-14-0Record28-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
75"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1700
If they lose-6→ 1676
If they win+6→ 1875
If they lose-18→ 1851
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1808 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Edson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje92%
Edson Barboza 8%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 92% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1682, a 187-point edge.
Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Justin Gaethje 79%.
Edson Barboza carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.