Edson Barboza vs Shane Burgos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-14-0Record16-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
75"Reach75"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann
What's at stake
Shane Burgos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1696
If they lose-10→ 1672
If they win+14→ 1747
If they lose-18→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Edson BarbozaShane Burgos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Burgos72%
Edson Barboza 28%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Burgos a 72% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Shane Burgos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1733 to 1682, a 51-point edge.
Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Shane Burgos 63%.
Edson Barboza and Shane Burgos share 2 common opponents: Billy Quarantillo and Makwan Amirkhani.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.