Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Thiago Moisés

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-14-0Record19-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
75"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Edson BarbozaNow 1682
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670
Thiago MoisésNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
45%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.08
56%
Strike defense
53%
0.43
Takedown avg.
1.31
32%
Takedown accuracy
36%
73%
Takedown defense
53%
0.08
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaThiago Moisés
1700202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
1 (4%)
Submission
8 (42%)
9 (38%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Thiago Moisés62%
Edson Barboza 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Moisés a 62% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1683), separated by just 1 points.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.

Edson Barboza carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.