Combat Edge Intelligence

Eduardo Neves vs Justin McCully

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record11-5-2
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78.5"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight235 lbs
Eduardo Machado TeamTeamTeam Punishment

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Eduardo NevesNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583
Justin McCullyNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.69
Sig. strikes / min
1.58
66%
Strike accuracy
38%
6.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.02
56%
Strike defense
47%
5.77
Takedown avg.
1.28
0%
Takedown accuracy
44%
0%
Takedown defense
44%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Eduardo NevesJustin McCully
160020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (89%)
KO/TKO
1 (9%)
1 (11%)
Submission
6 (55%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Eduardo Neves66%
Justin McCully 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Eduardo Neves a 66% favorite over Justin McCully in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1599), separated by just 0 points.

Justin McCully enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Eduardo Neves finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Justin McCully 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.