Eduardo Neves vs Naoya Ogawa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-4-0Record7-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
78.5"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight253 lbs
Eduardo Machado TeamTeamUFO
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1582
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Eduardo NevesNaoya Ogawa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Eduardo Neves61%
Naoya Ogawa 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Eduardo Neves a 61% favorite over Naoya Ogawa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1598 vs 1596), separated by just 2 points.
Naoya Ogawa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Eduardo Neves finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Naoya Ogawa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.