Edwyn Petrea vs Marcello Morelli
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Marcello Morelli59%
Edwyn Petrea 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcello Morelli a 59% favorite over Edwyn Petrea in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Edwyn Petrea's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1555 vs 1553), separated by just 2 points.
Edwyn Petrea enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Marcello Morelli enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcello Morelli 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
2-0-0Record8-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
-Reach-
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Tristar GymTeamUniq Fight Club· 1580 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1579
If they lose-24→ 1531
If they win+16→ 1569
If they lose-16→ 1537
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1499 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Edwyn PetreaMarcello Morelli