Eliezer Kubanza vs Trey Waters
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Eliezer Kubanza53%
Trey Waters 47%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Eliezer Kubanza a 53% favorite over Trey Waters in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Eliezer Kubanza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1661, a 32-point edge.
Eliezer Kubanza enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Eliezer Kubanza finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Trey Waters 70%.
Trey Waters carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
10-1-0Record10-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'5"
74.5"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Soma Fight Club· 1595 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamLudus MMA
What's at stake
Eliezer Kubanza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Trey Waters carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1708
If they lose-17→ 1676
If they win+17→ 1678
If they lose-15→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1604 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Eliezer KubanzaTrey Waters