Eliezer Kubanza vs Trey Waters

DateOct 16, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueWintrust Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 16, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Fri 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Eliezer KubanzaKing Kong |9-1-0Eliezer Kubanza vs Trey WatersTrey WatersThe Truth |10-2-0

Eliezer KubanzaKing Kong9-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

9-1-0Record10-2-0

28Age31

5'9"Height6'5"

74.5"Reach77"

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Trey WatersThe Truth10-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Trey Waters owns a 6-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Eliezer Kubanza and Trey Waters across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Eliezer KubanzaTrey Waters

Recent form

Eliezer KubanzaW W L W W · +45 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Trey WatersW L W W W · +69 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

Eliezer Kubanza1673+26 last move

Trey Waters1679+15 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

54%Eliezer Kubanza46%Trey Waters

Model favoriteEliezer Kubanza

Elo baseline49% for Eliezer Kubanza

Matchup adjustment+5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Eliezer KubanzaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Eliezer Kubanza is 54%, after Elo alone favored Trey Waters at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1673 · 1679Trey Waters leads by 6 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1529 · 1580Trey Waters faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth10 · 12 fightsTrey Waters has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Eliezer KubanzavsTrey Waters

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Eliezer KubanzaKO/TKO leads 78% of wins

Trey WatersKO/TKO leads 40% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Eliezer KubanzaTrey Waters

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min6.39

UFC welterweight average : 3.67

Not availableSig. strike accuracy44

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min5.83

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

Not availableSig. strike defense56

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown average0.40

UFC welterweight average : 1.33

Not availableTakedown accuracy33

UFC welterweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defense86

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission average0.81

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

7Wins by knockout4

1Wins by submission3

1Wins by decision3

1Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision0

Eliezer Kubanza vs Trey Waters is a scheduled Welterweight fight on PFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2. Eliezer Kubanza enters with a 9-1-0 record and Trey Waters enters with a 10-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.