Combat Edge Intelligence

Elijah Smith vs Vince Morales

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-1-0Record16-11-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
71"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Team VictoryTeamSyndicate MMA

What's at stake

Elijah Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Vince Morales carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Elijah SmithNow 1718
If they win+12→ 1730
If they lose-20→ 1698
Vince MoralesNow 1619
If they win+15→ 1634
If they lose-9→ 1610

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1578 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.45
Sig. strikes / min
3.57
47%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4
48%
Strike defense
54%
3.51
Takedown avg.
0.59
53%
Takedown accuracy
40%
57%
Takedown defense
59%
0.88
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Elijah SmithVince Morales
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
2 (20%)
Submission
5 (31%)
3 (30%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Elijah Smith90%
Vince Morales 10%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Elijah Smith a 90% favorite over Vince Morales in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Elijah Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1718 to 1619, a 99-point edge.

Elijah Smith enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Vince Morales enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Elijah Smith finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Vince Morales 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.